Do car diagnostic problems track monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers across states?
Across U.S. states, NHTSA owner complaints about car diagnostic run higher where monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers is higher, after adjusting for the makes sold in each state. This is an association across states, not proof that monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers causes this repair.
State reports of this repair against monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers, one dot per stateEach dot is a state: how much more (or less) than expected this repair is reported there, adjusted for the makes sold in the state, against its monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers (dollars)
How to read it: Each dot is a state. Further right means more monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers (dollars); higher up means more complaints for this repair than expected (1.0 is average). If the dots climb to the right, reports of this repair rise with monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers (dollars).
What it shows: States with more monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers (dollars) tend to sit higher on the chart across 49 states: a pattern in the data, not proof of cause.
Data: Census LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators 2024, NAICS 8111, joined to NHTSA owner complaints, downloaded 2026-10-06 · 49 states. Chart: CalcScrape · calcscrape.com
The 10 states with the most monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers (District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, Colorado, Rhode Island, Delaware, California, Oregon): reports of this repair run 6% above what the makes sold there would predict, and 6 of 10 are above expected. The 10 with the least (Utah, South Dakota, West Virginia, New Mexico, Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Iowa): 9% below, and 1 of 10 are above expected.
Exceptions: Massachusetts, Washington and New Hampshire are among the highest in monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers but report below expected.
Split the states into thirds: the third with the least monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers runs 5% below what the makes sold there would predict, the middle third 1% below, and the third with the most 7% above. It steps up steadily.
For monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers, after allowing for the 1562 comparisons we ran, luck alone would produce a pattern this strong about 1 time in 10. Take out any single state and the monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers pattern still holds.
Weak spot: compare only states with similar share of public road miles that are urban local streets and the pattern keeps about 6% of its strength, so part of it may come from share of public road miles that are urban local streets instead of monthly earnings of newly hired auto repair shop workers.
Higher starting pay for shop workers marks a tighter local labor market, which pushes up the labor part of every repair bill.